中央经济工作会议解读：内需引领、创新驱动

Monetary Policy - The central economic work conference proposed "timely RRR and interest rate cuts" to stimulate demand and stabilize prices, with a potential RRR reduction of 100-150 basis points by the end of 2025[3] - Interest rates are expected to be cut by 20-40 basis points in 2025, considering external rate cut space and currency stability[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase from 3% to 4%, amounting to approximately CNY 5.5 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.44 trillion from 2024[10] - The net financing scale of incremental fiscal policies in 2025 is expected to reach CNY 11-12 trillion, an increase of CNY 2-3 trillion from 2024[11] Consumption and Demand - The conference emphasized boosting consumption, particularly among low-income groups, to enhance consumer demand and improve living standards[17] - Specific measures include expanding the scope of "old-for-new" policies in sectors like electric vehicles and electronics, and introducing consumption vouchers to support service consumption[17] Real Estate Market - Policies will focus on both supply and demand to stabilize the real estate market, with measures to activate existing land and control new land supply[24] - The demand-side measures aim to lower purchasing costs and thresholds, enhancing residents' willingness and ability to buy homes[24] Innovation and Industry Policy - The "AI+" initiative aims to foster future industries, with significant opportunities in smart manufacturing, healthcare, and transportation[28] - The focus on green and low-carbon transitions will benefit the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind energy[29]