11月财政数据分析：收支延续改善，增速边际放缓

Revenue Overview - The combined revenue growth rate for the first and second accounts in November is -4.2%, an improvement from -4.7% in the previous month, marking three consecutive months of narrowing declines[4] - Non-tax revenue growth reached a new high of 17% year-on-year for the first 11 months, with a monthly growth rate of 40.4%[5] - Tax revenue growth rate for the first 11 months is -3.9%, improving from -4.5% previously, indicating a recovery in several tax categories[5] Expenditure Insights - Total expenditure growth rate for the first and second accounts is 1.38%, up from 1.0% in the previous month, reflecting increased fiscal support[4] - Social security and infrastructure spending growth rates are 5.89% and 6.06% respectively, while education spending growth slightly decreased to 0.55%[10] - Government fund expenditure growth for the first 11 months is -2.6%, with a monthly growth rate of 6.31%, down from 47.8% previously[11] Fiscal Challenges - The total revenue shortfall is estimated at around 650 billion yuan, with tax revenue expected to fall short by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan against the initial budget, while non-tax revenue is projected to exceed the budget by about 550 billion yuan[16] - Land transfer revenue for January to October totaled 32,626 billion yuan, down 22.4% year-on-year, but showed a monthly increase of 53.5% in November, indicating ongoing pressure on local government revenues[29] Policy Implications - The current fiscal data suggests a need for continued policy support to address the marginal decline in expenditure growth and the ongoing revenue pressures faced by local governments[33] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds has largely been completed, with 2 trillion yuan of debt relief funds issued by mid-December, indicating a shift towards stabilizing fiscal conditions[11]