2025年有色金属行业投资策略：周期重启，有色乘风而上

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in precious metals, base metals, and new materials [3][4] Core Views - The macro environment is favorable with the start of a rate-cutting cycle and a global PMI recovery, which is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [3] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to see price increases due to weakening dollar credibility, rising fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases [3] - Base metals like aluminum and copper are expected to benefit from supply constraints and demand recovery, with aluminum capacity nearing its ceiling and copper supply shortages persisting [3] - New materials, particularly aluminum thermal management materials, are in high demand, driven by the automotive and renewable energy sectors [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to central bank gold purchases and a decline in real interest rates, with ETF holdings likely to increase [3][44] - Silver is also expected to perform well, driven by its dual role as an industrial and investment asset, with photovoltaic silver demand growing significantly [51] Base Metals - Aluminum supply is constrained, with domestic capacity nearing its limit and limited new capacity additions expected in the coming years [55][57] - Copper supply is expected to remain tight, with limited capital expenditure in recent years leading to slower production growth [114][116] - The aluminum market is expected to see a recovery in demand from the new energy and power sectors, offsetting declines in construction demand [64][65] - Copper demand is being driven by the new energy sector and increased grid investments, with China being a major consumer [126][127] New Materials - Aluminum thermal management materials are experiencing high demand, particularly in the automotive sector, with companies like Huafon Aluminum benefiting [4] - Magnesium is increasingly being used as a substitute for aluminum in automotive casting, with companies like Baowu Magnesium seeing growth opportunities [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Aluminum supply is expected to remain tight, with limited new capacity additions and strong demand from the new energy and power sectors [79][80] - Copper supply is constrained by low capital expenditure and declining ore grades, while demand is being driven by the new energy sector and grid investments [114][126] - The aluminum market is expected to see a recovery in demand from the new energy and power sectors, offsetting declines in construction demand [64][65] Global Economic Context - The global economy is at a cyclical low, with manufacturing inventories at the bottom of the cycle, suggesting potential for an upward trend [16][17] - The global PMI is showing signs of recovery, with China and the US leading the way, indicating a potential synchronized inventory restocking cycle [18][23]