汽车：汽车以旧换新突破500万辆 新能源渗透率有望持续提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry has seen over 5 million vehicles exchanged under the trade-in program, with new energy vehicle penetration reaching 52.3% in November, marking a 12% increase year-on-year [2][5]. - The government has implemented various policies to support vehicle trade-ins and upgrades, which are expected to boost retail sales of new energy vehicles by 41.2% year-on-year, totaling 9.594 million units from January to November 2024 [2][6]. - The report highlights that the automotive consumption is shifting from "having" to "upgrading," with over 40% of consumers opting for high-end and new energy vehicles [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of December 9, 2024, the total number of vehicles exchanged under the trade-in program has surpassed 5 million, with scrappage updates exceeding 2.44 million and replacement updates over 2.59 million [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.3% in November, continuing a trend of exceeding 50% for five consecutive months [2]. Policy Support - The government has issued guidelines and measures to enhance the trade-in program, with 31 provinces and 5 municipalities implementing supportive policies [2][6]. - The report notes that the upcoming end of purchase tax exemptions and trade-in subsidies is likely to drive consumer demand for vehicle purchases as the year concludes [2]. Industry Trends - The report indicates that the automotive market is experiencing a shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with significant room for growth in new energy vehicle market share [5][6]. - Challenges facing the new energy vehicle sector include battery safety, insufficient range, and low resale values, but advancements in technology and infrastructure are expected to alleviate these issues over time [5][6].