2025年计算机行业投资策略：创新豹变，反转破浪

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the computer industry, with a focus on innovation and growth opportunities [1][3] Core Views - The computer industry is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth and controlled personnel costs, with profit elasticity likely to emerge in 2025 [3] - Three key investment directions for 2025 are highlighted: AI realization, growth in high-growth sectors, and turnaround opportunities [3] AI Realization - AI applications are expected to enter a realization phase in 2025, driven by optimization of large model algorithms and price reductions, particularly in edge-side intelligence [3] - AI computing power, especially inference computing, is set to rise, with domestic AI computing power expected to grow significantly [3] - ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) will see increased penetration into lower-priced vehicle models, with domestic computing power for autonomous driving also on the rise [3] Growth in High-Growth Sectors - The domestic substitution of core software and hardware in the IT sector is accelerating, with industrial software expected to see a peak in domestic substitution between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The financial IT sector is experiencing a full recovery in market sentiment, driven by policy support for financial innovation, including digital currency and cross-border payment initiatives [4] Turnaround Opportunities - The medical IT sector is expected to recover in 2025, supported by new healthcare policies and the implementation of prepayment systems [5] - The cybersecurity sector is seeing improved security budgets and potential consolidation in the competitive landscape [5] Valuation and Market Position - The computer industry's valuation has rebounded quickly, with the PS (Price-to-Sales) ratio currently at the 60th percentile historically, indicating room for further growth [3] - Institutional holdings in the computer industry are at a historical low, with a 2.4% allocation as of September 2024, suggesting potential for increased investment [3] Key Companies and Performance - Several companies in the financial IT sector, such as 300377 SZ (Yingsheng) and 300561 SZ (Huijin Technology), have seen significant stock price increases, benefiting from capital market support policies [9][10] - Companies like 300290 SZ (Rongke Technology) and 000158 SZ (Changshan Beiming) have also performed well, driven by partnerships with Huawei and other tech giants [11][13] Market Trends and Developments - The computer industry experienced a "high-low-high" trend in 2024, with a rebound in valuation following supportive policies in September [3] - The industry's fundamentals are improving, with revenue growth recovering and cost controls in place, setting the stage for potential profit growth in 2025 [3] AI and Computing Power - The rise of AI computing power, particularly in inference, is a key trend, with domestic AI computing power expected to grow significantly due to lower software ecosystem requirements [3] - ADAS technology is becoming more accessible, with L2+ autonomous driving features increasingly available in lower-priced vehicle models [3] Industrial Software and IT Infrastructure - The industrial software sector is expected to see significant growth, with mergers and acquisitions driving industry consolidation and domestic substitution peaking between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The financial IT sector is benefiting from a recovery in market sentiment and policy support for financial innovation, including digital currency and cross-border payment initiatives [4] Turnaround Sectors - The medical IT sector is poised for recovery in 2025, supported by new healthcare policies and the implementation of prepayment systems, which are expected to alleviate financial pressures on hospitals [5] - The cybersecurity sector is seeing improved security budgets and potential consolidation in the competitive landscape, which could lead to a more stable and profitable market environment [5]