2025年建材行业投资策略：政策持续加码，供给加速收缩，静待需求破局

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the building materials industry, driven by policy support and supply-side adjustments, with expectations for demand recovery in 2025 [3][4]. Core Insights - The two main themes for 2025 are policy support and proactive supply adjustments. The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, while infrastructure investment is projected to improve due to eased fiscal pressures [3][4]. - The cement industry is anticipated to see a reduction in "involutionary competition," leading to improved profitability. The implementation of capacity replacement regulations is expected to accelerate the exit of excess capacity [4][54]. - The glass fiber sector is expected to experience price recovery, with a shift towards higher-end products, enhancing profitability [5]. - The consumer building materials segment is likely to benefit from a recovering real estate market, with increased demand for renovation driven by wealth effects [5]. - The glass industry is under pressure due to declining real estate completions, necessitating attention to supply-side adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook - The building materials industry faced challenges in 2024, but policy changes in May and September improved demand expectations, leading to a two-phase market recovery [11][17]. - The glass fiber and cement sectors showed price increases, outperforming other segments [11]. 2. Cement: Mindset Shift and Capacity Disposal Driving Profitability - Cement production is expected to decline by 10% in 2024, with a smaller decline anticipated in 2025. The demand for cement is projected to decrease by 5-10% in 2025 [54]. - The cessation of chaotic price wars is expected to raise profitability levels, with significant price increases noted in various regions [54][55]. - Industry self-discipline is being reinforced to prevent destructive competition, with a focus on regional consolidation and capacity reduction [55]. 3. Consumer Building Materials: Increased Concentration and Renovation Demand - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in renovation demand, benefiting leading companies in the consumer building materials sector [5][22]. 4. Glass Fiber: Sustainable Price Recovery and Expanding Applications - The glass fiber industry is experiencing price increases, with a focus on high-end products to enhance profitability [5]. 5. Glass: Completion Pressures and Supply-Side Adjustments - The glass industry is facing challenges due to a decline in real estate completions, highlighting the need for proactive supply adjustments [6]. 6. Financial Performance - The building materials industry reported a revenue of 175.45 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 9.0% [30]. - The industry is seeing improvements in cash flow, particularly in the renovation segment, indicating a gradual recovery [30][35].