多重支持因素助推机械制造行业景气度上行

Investment Rating - The mechanical manufacturing industry is expected to gradually recover growth by 2025, supported by equipment renewal policies, fiscal funding, and accelerated infrastructure construction [4][10][19]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical manufacturing industry is experiencing a structural change in demand, with some product sales declining while others, like excavators and loaders, are seeing growth due to multiple supportive factors including equipment updates and fiscal policies [4][5][10]. - The industry is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and real estate market performance, which has put pressure on overall profitability, although some segments are recovering due to infrastructure investments [4][25][26]. - The government has introduced various policies to stimulate the mechanical manufacturing sector, focusing on equipment updates, green transformation, and intelligent development, which are expected to create growth opportunities [5][9][10]. Policy Environment - The policy environment for the mechanical manufacturing industry in 2024 is characterized by multiple supportive factors, including equipment updates, green transformation, and intelligent development [5][9]. - Key policies include the promotion of large-scale equipment updates and financial support for the industry, which are aimed at enhancing technological upgrades and sustainable development [5][7][9]. Industry Structure - The mechanical manufacturing industry is investment-driven and sensitive to macroeconomic changes, with a strong cyclical nature [10][11]. - The demand for mechanical products is significantly influenced by fixed asset investment in downstream industries, with notable growth in infrastructure and mining sectors helping to offset declines in real estate investment [10][12][14]. Profitability - The overall profitability of the mechanical manufacturing industry remains under pressure due to a sluggish macroeconomic environment and weak real estate sector, although some segments are seeing recovery thanks to infrastructure investments [25][26][29]. - There is a notable divergence in performance among different sectors, with some companies reporting profit growth while others face challenges related to accounts receivable and liquidity [25][26][29].