BABA(BABA) 交银国际证券·2024-12-18 01:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of USD 111.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.0% from the current price of USD 86.06 [1][5]. Core Insights - Alibaba's recent sale of its 100% stake in Intime to a consortium led by Youngor Group is seen as a strategic move to focus on its core businesses, which is expected to enhance the company's performance recovery opportunities [1][2]. - The sale is projected to result in a one-time accounting loss of approximately RMB 9.3 billion (around USD 1.3 billion), but it is noted that this will not significantly impact Alibaba's overall revenue, as the contribution from Intime is less than 1% of total revenue [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Alibaba's focus on its e-commerce platforms and cloud services, which are expected to drive future growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023, Alibaba reported total revenue of RMB 868.7 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 941.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [4][17]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 141.4 billion, with expectations of RMB 157.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 10.5% [4][17]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues reaching RMB 1,187.1 billion by 2027 [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - Alibaba's current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4x for the fiscal year 2024 and 9.7x for 2025, with an expected adjusted net profit growth rate of 8% for 2025 [3][4]. - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to the recovery of Alibaba's core e-commerce business and the potential for improved monetization rates, which could lead to accelerated revenue and profit growth [3][4].