点评报告：经济阶段回调，政策效应需进一步释放

Economic Growth - Industrial added value in November 2024 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with manufacturing as the main support[5] - Fixed asset investment growth for January-November 2024 was 3.3%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Social retail sales in November 2024 grew by 3.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from October, influenced by high base effects[18] Trade and Exports - In November 2024, total exports reached $312.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but down 6.0 percentage points from the previous month[31] - Imports in November 2024 decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting reduced demand for traditional commodities[37] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2024 rose by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating weak effective demand[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.5% year-on-year in November 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from October, signaling a potential bottoming out of industrial prices[42] Monetary Policy and Financing - New RMB loans in November 2024 totaled 580 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 510 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak credit demand[9] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.1% year-on-year in November 2024, reflecting a stable monetary environment despite a slight decline from the previous month[10]