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11月经济数据点评:生产保持韧性,需求有所分化
Guolian Securities·2024-12-18 05:55

Demand Side - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 2.0% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[10] - Restaurant consumption continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%[27] - Fixed asset investment remained stable with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, while manufacturing investment expanded by 0.4%[43] Supply Side - Industrial added value showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, up from 0.4% in the previous month[11] - Electricity generation also rebounded, increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a previous decrease of 2.8%[61] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month[12] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities was also steady at 5.0%[70] Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to return to a recovery track, with GDP growth projected to exceed 1.2%-1.3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by ongoing counter-cyclical adjustments and policy measures[13] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact exports[85]