2025年度宏观经济与大类资产配置展望：无限风光在险峰

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, which is considered low compared to historical standards[58] - Inflation is projected to decrease from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, indicating a continued global easing cycle[63] - The IMF forecasts that developed economies will grow by 1.8% in 2025, while emerging markets will see a growth of 4.2%[60] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter in 2025, continuing the easing cycle initiated in 2024[70] - The U.S. core CPI is projected to remain around 3.3% in October 2024, indicating persistent inflation concerns[74] - The pressure from corporate financing costs may compel the Fed to maintain a dovish stance despite rising inflation expectations[75] Chinese Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is anticipated to stabilize at 4.7% in 2025, with nominal growth expected at 5.1%[1] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth is projected to be 1.35 percentage points, while capital formation contributes 1.28 percentage points[80] - Structural highlights in China's economy include resilience in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, despite challenges in real estate and consumer spending[80] Asset Allocation Strategy - The ranking of major asset classes for 2025 is expected to be: equities > commodities > bonds > cash[1] - A-share market performance is anticipated to benefit from policy support and capital market reforms, with PE ratios remaining below median levels[1] - Commodity prices may face challenges from a strong dollar and supply-side issues, while gold prices are expected to remain robust[1]