家居行业2025年度策略：家居板块政策受益，Beta和Alpha共振

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, indicating a recovery driven by policy support and market dynamics [3][10]. Core Insights - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a revival due to favorable policies aimed at stimulating real estate demand, which in turn boosts the home furnishing sector [3][10]. - The report highlights the significant impact of the "old-for-new" policy, which has led to a noticeable increase in demand for home furnishing products [22][23]. - The market is expected to see a shift in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for second-hand homes and renovation projects, which will support long-term industry growth [3][11]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The home furnishing demand is benefiting from policy stimuli, with a notable recovery in the real estate market, leading to improved consumer confidence and spending [3][10]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions is increasing, which is expected to offset the decline in new home sales [11][12]. Policy Impact - Since September 2024, various supportive policies have been implemented, including the "old-for-new" subsidy, which has significantly boosted retail sales in the home furnishing sector [22][23]. - The report notes that the effectiveness of these policies varies by region, with some areas experiencing more substantial benefits than others [20][22]. Demand Forecast - Under a neutral scenario, the report estimates a 7% decline in demand for the custom home furnishing sector and stable demand for soft home furnishings by 2025 [3]. - The anticipated demand from the "old-for-new" policy is projected to reach 400 billion yuan in subsidies, stimulating a 24% increase in demand [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their sensitivity to policy changes and market dynamics, including Sophia, Oupai Home, and Zhihong Home for custom furnishings, and Kuka Home and Mousse for soft furnishings [3][5].