2025年宏观展望之一：积极财政：发力哪些方向？

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2024, the fiscal policy focused on debt reduction while also showing effectiveness in expanding domestic demand through various tools[3] - The central government's debt issuance scale is expected to moderately increase in 2025, with a budget deficit rate projected to rise to around 3.5%-4%[3][60] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024 to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[3][60] Consumption and Investment Support - The "old-for-new" policy is likely to continue and expand in 2025, with a target to increase the recycling of scrapped vehicles by 50% and household appliances by 15% compared to 2023[4][29] - The government plans to allocate around 1.5 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" subsidy, which could boost retail sales growth by 0.45-0.6 percentage points[61] - Equipment updates in key sectors are expected to see increased investment, with a projected growth of over 25% in industrial equipment investment by 2027[62] Infrastructure and Risk Management - The issuance of special bonds is likely to continue, with over 1 trillion yuan expected to support "two new" and "two heavy" projects[3][60] - The focus on "two heavy" construction projects will include significant infrastructure investments in areas such as food security and energy security[56] - Additional special bonds may be issued to inject capital into banks, ensuring financial stability and supporting real estate and vulnerable groups[63]