Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Green Valley Pharmaceutical (2186 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 2.90 [3][5] Core Views - Green Valley Pharmaceutical is a well-established pharmaceutical company with a broad sales network covering over 21,000 hospitals in China and 80 countries globally [1] - The company has a diversified product portfolio in oncology, cardiovascular, central nervous system (CNS), and digestive/metabolic fields, with several new drugs expected to be approved by 2025 [1] - The CNS business is expected to grow steadily, driven by strong demand for key products like Seroquel (思瑞康) and Rivastigmine Patch (利斯的明贴剂), with a projected 2023-26E CAGR of 13.2% [2] - The oncology business is expected to recover growth from 2025, supported by new products like Botuowei (百拓维) and Zanbiji (赞必佳) [2] - The cardiovascular business is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024, with a projected 2025-26E CAGR of 5.7% [2] - The digestive/metabolic business is expected to resume growth from 2025, driven by the potential approval of new drugs like Dulaglutide (度拉糖肽) and Aflibercept (阿柏西普) [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a 2023-26E CAGR of 7.2%, with net profit projected to increase by 50.9% in 2024E, followed by 4.6% and 6.5% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [5] - The oncology segment accounted for 31.0% of total revenue in H1 2024, followed by CNS (29.8%), cardiovascular (27.7%), and digestive/metabolic (7.1%) [17] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - CNS Products: Seroquel (思瑞康) is expected to maintain stable sales, while Rivastigmine Patch (利斯的明贴剂) and Ruoxinlin (若欣林) are expected to drive growth with 2023-26E CAGRs of 28.1% and 60.8%, respectively [2][28] - Oncology Products: Lipusu (力朴素) is expected to see a moderate recovery in sales from H2 2024, while Botuowei (百拓维) and Zanbiji (赞必佳) are expected to contribute significantly to growth from 2025 [2][44][48] - Cardiovascular Products: Xuezhikang (血脂康) is expected to recover sales in H2 2024, while Oukai (欧开) is projected to grow at a 2023-26E CAGR of 23.2% [56][57] - Digestive/Metabolic Products: The segment is expected to resume growth from 2025, driven by the potential approval of Dulaglutide (度拉糖肽) and Aflibercept (阿柏西普) [2][60] Valuation and Market Position - The company is currently undervalued compared to industry peers, with a target price of HKD 2.90 based on a 12.0x 2025E PER [5] - Green Valley Pharmaceutical has a strong market position in China, with a broad product portfolio and extensive sales network [1][17]
绿叶制药：首次覆盖报告：核心产品需求稳定，多款新药将逐步兑现