宏观观点：美联储12月如期降息25个基点，但大幅下调明年降息预期

Macroeconomic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but significantly revised down its rate cut expectations for next year[1] - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) raised economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, while lowering unemployment rate expectations to 4.2% and 4.3%[1] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 and 2026 were raised by 0.2 percentage points, with the 2025 forecast at 2.5%, slightly above the 2.4% prediction[1] Interest Rate Projections - The Fed's forecast for rate cuts next year was halved to two cuts of 25 basis points each, with the median rate for 2025 adjusted up by 50 basis points to 3.9%[1] - The median rate for 2026 and 2027 was also raised to 3.4% and 3.1%, indicating a prolonged easing cycle until 2027[1] Economic Concerns - The Fed's optimism regarding the economy and labor market may be overly optimistic, with unemployment rising to 4.246% and expected to face upward pressure[1] - Economic growth is projected to slow from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025, primarily supported by consumer spending[1] - Risks include slow rate cuts potentially leading to recession and inflation risks from potential policy changes under the next presidential administration[1]