2025年制冷剂配额核发公示点评：三代整体略超预期，制冷剂新年高景气依旧

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The 2025 refrigerant quota issuance is in line with expectations, with a total production quota of 163,600 tons for second-generation refrigerants, a reduction of 51,200 tons from 2024 [2] - The production quota for R22 is set at 149,100 tons, down 32,800 tons (18%) for production and 28,300 tons (28%) for internal use compared to 2024 [2] - The third-generation refrigerants' total quota is 788,900 tons, an increase of 43,400 tons year-on-year, with R32 production quota at 280,300 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons [2] - The demand for household and commercial air conditioning is expected to grow, leading to a potential rise in R22 prices [2] - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant industry are improving, driven by growth in the air conditioning and automotive repair markets [2] Summary by Sections Quota Issuance - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the 2025 quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons, receiving applications from 48 companies for production and usage quotas [2] - The second-generation refrigerant quotas are set at 163,600 tons for production and 86,000 tons for internal use, with significant reductions from 2024 [2] Price Trends - Domestic prices for R32, R125, and R134a have surpassed 40,000 yuan, with some transactions reaching 42,000 yuan [2] - The report indicates that the price trends are expected to continue upward due to strong demand [2] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "buy" rating for companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Dongyangguang, Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources, highlighting the ongoing optimization of the industry and company landscape [2]