12月FOMC会议：针对特朗普2.0进行偏鹰的预期管理

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Fed cut rates by 25BP, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.25%, with a cumulative 100BP reduction in 2024[2] - The Fed's dot plot suggests a potential 50BP rate cut in 2025, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed raised its neutral rate estimate to 3%, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[2] Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed revised upward its 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts, while expecting PCE inflation to stabilize by 2025[2] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 is projected at 2.5%, reflecting moderate inflationary pressures[19] - The Fed views inflation as broadly on track, with housing costs and non-housing services contributing to a gradual decline[19] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell below 6000 and 20000 points, respectively[9] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 12BP to 4.523%, and the dollar index increased by 1.23% to 108.2621[9] - Gold prices dropped by 2.31% to $2584.574 per ounce, reflecting a shift in risk sentiment[9] Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty - The Fed is assessing the potential impact of tariffs, with 2018 simulations suggesting a 1.25% inflation spike from a 15% tariff[19] - Trump's potential policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, pose significant upside risks to inflation[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance is partly a preemptive measure against policy uncertainty, rather than a response to immediate inflation risks[3] Labor Market and Fiscal Policy - The labor market remains stable, with unemployment expected to edge down to 4.3% in 2025[2] - Fiscal expansion under Trump could increase debt levels, potentially necessitating lower interest rates to manage debt servicing costs[28]