美联储12月议息会议点评报告：美联储传递节奏更缓的渐进式降息信号

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.25% to 5.50% during the December meeting[5] - The U.S. economy is projected to achieve a soft landing with GDP growth rates of 2.5% in 2024, declining to 1.8% by 2027[17] - PCE inflation is forecasted to be 2.8% in December 2024, gradually decreasing to 2.0% by 2027[17] Group 2: Market Impacts - Commodity markets are likely to experience fluctuations due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions[5] - The bond market is expected to react to the Fed's decisions, with yields adjusting based on inflation expectations[5] - Equity markets may face volatility as investors assess the implications of interest rate changes on corporate earnings[5] Group 3: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation spikes and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact economic stability[5] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring consumer spending trends as a key indicator of economic health[5]