通胀担忧抬头，美联储声调超预期转鹰

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates a median rate forecast increase of 50 basis points for next year to 3.9%, suggesting only two 25 basis point cuts, down from four previously anticipated[2] - Internal dissent was noted, with Cleveland Fed President advocating for no rate change, indicating differing opinions within the Fed[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation Focus - Fed officials raised their 2025 PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.5%, up by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively from September[3] - GDP growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted slightly upward to 2.1%, an increase of 0.1% from previous estimates, with risks to growth seen as balanced[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was lowered to 4.3%, down from 4.4% in September, indicating a more optimistic labor market outlook[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Policy - The market decline post-announcement was attributed to the Fed's indication of a potential pause in rate cuts, which was more hawkish than expected[7] - The Fed's future policy adjustments will be data-dependent, increasing market uncertainty[7] - Despite the hawkish tone, the Fed's stable economic growth outlook suggests potential upward movement for US equities in the coming year, albeit at a slower pace than the latter half of this year[7]