2025年宏观展望之四：若加关税：测算多大影响？

Trade Friction Impact - The 2018-2019 trade friction led to a significant increase in tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rising from 3.1% to 19.3%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports rising from 8% to 21.2%[11] - Academic studies estimate that a 1% increase in tariffs could lead to a 1.6% decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S., with overall export declines ranging from 17% to 32%[18] - The burden of tariffs was largely borne by U.S. consumers and importers, as Chinese export prices did not significantly decrease despite the tariff hikes[19] Potential 2025 Tariff Scenarios - If the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the average tariff level could rise by 40.7 percentage points, significantly impacting Chinese exports[23] - Under a neutral scenario, a 40% tariff increase could reduce China's export growth by 3.8 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points[29] - In an extreme scenario, a 60% tariff could drag down China's overall exports by 5.1 percentage points and GDP by more than 1 percentage point[29] Industry-Specific Impacts - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles, apparel, and furniture are more vulnerable to tariff increases due to their high export dependency[34] - Industries like computer and communication equipment, which have high U.S. import dependency, are also at significant risk[34] - Some industries, such as furniture and leather products, may have the ability to shift exports to other markets, mitigating the impact of tariffs[44]