航空新周期系列点评之二：放宽优化外国人过境免签政策利好航空出行，我国航空出行人口规模有望持续增长

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The recent relaxation and optimization of visa-free transit policies for foreigners is expected to boost air travel demand and facilitate a steady recovery in international flight volumes. The policy allows foreigners to stay in China for up to 240 hours (10 days) and adds 21 new ports for visa-free entry and exit [5][16]. - The civil aviation passenger volume in China is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024, surpassing 700 million passengers. The average annual growth rate of civil aviation passenger volume from 2014 to 2019 was 11%, with 2019 seeing 660 million passengers [5][16]. - The number of outbound trips by Chinese residents is expected to steadily increase, with 2023 seeing a recovery to 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels. The compound annual growth rate for outbound trips over the past 25 years was 20.16% [5][16]. - Domestic tourism numbers have shown a strong recovery, reaching 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, with a historical average growth rate of 10.25% over the past 25 years [5][16]. - There is significant potential for growth in air travel per capita in China, with the projected average number of flights per person in 2024 being 0.52, compared to 2.82 in the U.S. in 2019. If per capita flights increase to 1, there is potential for a doubling of air travel demand [5][16]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The relaxation of visa policies is expected to enhance air travel demand and stimulate international flight recovery [5][16]. Market Recovery - Civil aviation passenger volume is set to exceed 700 million in 2024, marking a recovery beyond pre-pandemic levels [5][16]. Outbound Travel - Outbound travel is recovering, with 2023 figures at 59.7% of pre-pandemic levels, indicating a positive trend for future growth [5][16]. Domestic Tourism - Domestic tourism has rebounded significantly, with 2023 numbers at 81.42% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting strong consumer demand [5][16]. Growth Potential - There is substantial room for growth in air travel per capita, suggesting a doubling of demand if per capita flights reach 1 [5][16].