Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target rate of 4.50%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is now 3.9%, indicating only about 0.6 percentage points of cuts, equivalent to two 25 basis point reductions[1] - The long-term target interest rate was raised by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%[1] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth expectations for 2024 were raised from 2.0% to 2.5%, and for 2025 from 2.0% to 2.1%[1] - Unemployment rate forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively[1] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 were increased from 2.6% to 2.8%, and for 2025 from 2.2% to 2.5%[1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the S&P 500 dropped by 2.9%, the Nasdaq fell by 3.6%, and the Russell 2000 index declined by 4.4%[4] - The bond market also reacted negatively, with long-term Treasury prices falling by 1.6% and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rising above 4.5%[4] - The market's expectations for future rate cuts are less aggressive than the Fed's guidance, with only 1.4 expected cuts by 2025 compared to the Fed's indication of 2 cuts[4]
美股宏观策略：美联储下调2025年降息次数指引────引发市场恐慌性抛售
国证国际证券·2024-12-20 06:36