Connectors (TEL _ APH)_November '24 was another strong month; UBS Evidence Lab inside

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Amphenol Corp (APH) and TE Connectivity PLC (TEL) with price targets of $88 and$175 respectively [67][71]. Core Insights - The electronic component inventory levels in the US have decreased approximately 4% year-over-year, indicating stabilization in the market [27]. - Connector pricing has shown a year-to-date increase of about 17% and a year-over-year increase of approximately 19% in the fourth quarter of 2024 [41][71]. - The report highlights that TEL and APH account for around 74% of unit inventory available on distributor websites, a significant increase from approximately 55% pre-pandemic [6][71]. Summary by Sections Inventory and Pricing Trends - Distributor dollar inventory decreased by 1% month-over-month, while unit inventory was down about 2% month-over-month but up 6% year-over-year in November [71]. - Connector dollar inventories are down approximately 40% from their peak but have shown relative sequential strength recently [34][71]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that electronic component pricing and availability can impact global supply chains, inflation, and cost of goods sold (COGS) inputs [9]. - The industrial destock headwind for TEL and APH is expected to continue to abate, potentially leading to a solid exit rate into 2025 [71]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that inventory comparisons for distributors will become easier in the first half of 2025, with current inventory levels still remaining below trend [71]. - The report raises EPS forecasts for APH to $2.29 and$2.58 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting slightly higher sales driven by a revised end-market view [71].