背靠航空界“扛把子”，现金奶牛奔赴A股，2024年最大IPO正在发行！

Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the air cargo market in 2024, driven by the normalization of operations and strong demand from cross-border e-commerce, leading to improved performance for major players like China International Cargo Airlines (国货航) and Eastern Airlines Logistics (东航物流) [5][6][12] - China International Cargo Airlines has shown remarkable growth from 2019 to 2021, with revenue doubling from 12.27 billion to 24.31 billion and profit increasing nearly tenfold from 470 million to 4.34 billion [3][6] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 20.42 billion and a net profit of 1.46 billion in 2024, reflecting significant year-on-year growth rates of 36.89% and 26.47% respectively [6][12] Revenue Comparison - In 2023, the revenue of China International Cargo Airlines dropped to 14.92 billion, a 40% decrease from the peak in 2021, while profits fell to 1.15 billion, only a quarter of the 2021 figure [38][57] - The revenue comparison among major players shows that China International Cargo Airlines, Eastern Airlines Logistics, and Southern Airlines Logistics have similar revenue peaks around 20 billion, with performance trends closely aligned [57][58] Market Position - The air cargo market in China is primarily dominated by three state-owned airlines: China International Cargo Airlines, Eastern Airlines Logistics, and Southern Airlines Logistics, which collectively hold about 75% of the market share [48][56] - The report indicates that the air cargo sector has high entry barriers due to the significant capital required for aircraft procurement and operational setup [49][50] Cash Flow and Financial Health - China International Cargo Airlines has maintained strong cash flow, generating 15.86 billion from operating activities between 2019 and 2023, exceeding its total profit by nearly 3 billion [69] - The company reported a free cash flow of 8.36 billion after accounting for capital expenditures, indicating robust financial health [8][68] Operational Insights - The company operates primarily through two transportation modes: all-cargo aircraft and passenger aircraft belly cargo, with air cargo services accounting for over 70% of its revenue [41][78] - The report notes a significant decline in revenue from passenger aircraft cargo services due to the reduction in temporary capacity during the pandemic, with a 98.64% drop in related income in 2023 [65][66] Future Outlook - The Civil Aviation Administration of China predicts that the cargo transport volume will reach 7.6 million tons in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 3%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [67] - The report emphasizes that the air cargo market is expected to stabilize in 2024, following the fluctuations caused by external factors in recent years [72]