Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the dairy industry, particularly for 2025, as leading dairy companies are expected to see improved profitability due to inventory destocking and supply-side capacity reduction [1][84] Core Views - The dairy industry is expected to experience profit recovery in 2025 as leading companies complete inventory destocking and supply-side capacity reduction [1][84] - The competitive landscape of the dairy industry is improving, with leading companies focusing more on profitability, leading to stable or declining sales expenses and improved net profit margins [1][84] - The report highlights key companies such as Yili, Mengniu, and New Hope Dairy as beneficiaries of these trends [1][84] Industry Supply and Demand Dynamics - The dairy industry has experienced cyclical price fluctuations due to the lag in supply adjustments and demand changes. Historically, milk prices have risen during periods of strong demand but have faced significant declines during periods of oversupply or external shocks [8][106][108] - The current milk price decline (2022-2024) is primarily driven by weak demand and oversupply, with milk production growth outpacing demand growth [106][108] - By 2025, the industry is expected to see a reversal in milk prices as supply-side capacity is reduced, and demand potentially recovers [107][134] Competitive Landscape and Profitability - Leading dairy companies are shifting their focus from market share to profitability, leading to more controlled sales and marketing expenses [66][86] - Companies like Yili and Mengniu have shown the ability to maintain or improve profitability even during periods of rising milk prices by adjusting product structures and reducing promotional activities [46][68] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will further improve in 2025, with reduced price wars and better profit margins for leading companies [86][88] Historical Milk Price Trends - The dairy industry has experienced three significant milk price declines since 2006, with the current decline (2022-2024) being the longest and most severe due to weak demand [106][108] - Previous milk price declines were driven by external shocks such as the 2008 melamine scandal and the 2014 international milk price crash, while the current decline is due to oversupply and weak demand [106][108] - The report predicts that milk prices will stabilize and potentially rise in 2025 as supply-side adjustments take effect and demand recovers [107][134] Key Companies and Their Strategies - Yili is expected to benefit from improved profitability in 2025 due to its strong channel management and ability to pass on cost pressures through product adjustments and reduced promotions [46][80] - Mengniu is focusing on its core businesses while expanding into innovative and international markets, with potential profitability improvements in 2025 [93] - New Hope Dairy is expected to improve profitability by increasing the proportion of high-margin products such as fresh milk and yogurt [80] Supply-Side Adjustments - The dairy industry is undergoing significant supply-side adjustments, with milk production expected to decline in 2025 due to cost pressures and reduced profitability for dairy farms [107][134] - The report estimates that milk production will need to decline by 7% in a pessimistic scenario (with a 2% drop in demand) or 2% in an optimistic scenario (with a 2% increase in demand) to achieve supply-demand balance [100][134] Historical Context and Future Outlook - The dairy industry has historically experienced cyclical price fluctuations, with milk prices rising during periods of strong demand and falling during periods of oversupply or external shocks [106][108] - The report predicts that the industry will return to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in 2025, with milk prices stabilizing and potentially rising as supply-side adjustments take effect [107][134]
乳制品行业深度报告：供给收缩 格局改善 进入盈利上升周期
申万宏源·2024-12-20 13:26