Scaling Technological Greenhouse Gas Removal: A Global Roadmap to 2050

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The roadmap emphasizes a global approach to Greenhouse Gas Removal (GHGR) rather than a national one, aiming for a comprehensive understanding of global scaling needs [2] - The goals are based on achieving global climate alignment, with thematic areas discussing what global stakeholders need to advance GHGR [2] - Initiatives are designed with a global perspective, including targets and milestones specified in global terms [2] Stakeholder Engagement - Government actors are crucial for developing deployment practices, establishing GHGR targets, and ensuring equitable and safe development [3] - Stakeholders include GHGR companies, purchasers, MRV developers, financial institutions, philanthropic funders, and community-based organizations [5] - Each stakeholder group has specific roles in advancing GHGR, such as innovation, community engagement, and financing [5] Science and Technology - Science and technology are foundational for GHGR, encompassing basic research, applied research, and the development of prototypes and pilot projects [6] - Deployment-led learning through pilot projects is a near-term priority, with the U S Department of Energy allocating $100 million over five years for such projects [8] - The focus for the next 10 years should be on pilot-scale testing, accompanied by applied research to solve technical barriers [10] Socio-Behavioral and Communities - Communities at risk, including those hosting GHGR activities, must shape GHGR development to their benefit [13] - Procedural justice initiatives focus on early engagement of GHGR communities in decision-making processes related to research, siting, deployment, and MRV practices [15] Finance and Markets - Voluntary markets, such as Frontier's commitment to buying over$1 billion of durable carbon removal between 2022 and 2030, are important for incubating frameworks and standards [18] - Unlocking scaled capital expenditure (capex) financing for first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects is a key barrier to GHGR deployment [20] Policy and Regulation - Policy and regulation are critical for establishing governance, permitting, and regulatory structures for GHGR [22] - Governments should establish GHGR removal targets tailored to local needs and strengths, separate from decarbonization targets [23] Technological Approaches - Air CDR, including Direct Air Capture (DAC), is a prominent approach with commercial-scale projects being deployed [31] - Ocean CDR approaches vary in technological readiness and require better understanding of ocean baselines and biogeochemistry [33] - Land CDR approaches, such as biochar and BECCS, are more ready for deployment than air, ocean, or rock CDR [85] - Rock CDR involves accelerating natural weathering or mineralization processes, with potential for integration into existing industries [70] Research Priorities - Research priorities for ocean CDR include advances in microalgae cultivation, environmental monitoring, and hardware development [51] - Land CDR research priorities include improved life cycle assessments, novel biomass storage processes, and optimization of BECCS equipment [61] - Rock CDR research priorities include siting analysis, global distribution of mineral resources, and development of modeling tools [101] Barriers to Deployment - Barriers to ocean CDR include deployment and monitoring hardware, environmental impacts, and regulatory frameworks [56] - Land CDR faces challenges related to durability, life cycle assessments, and sustainable biomass production [68] - Rock CDR barriers include mineralization rates, environmental impacts, and feedstock inventory [106] Non-CO2 GHGR - Non-CO2 GHGR focuses on removing methane and nitrous oxide, which have significant warming impacts and increasing atmospheric concentrations [107] - The technological maturity of non-CO2 GHGR is low, with most approaches not yet past TRL 2 [127] - Research priorities for non-CO2 GHGR include novel technological approaches, improved monitoring, and coupled Earth systems models [132] Decadal Initiatives - The roadmap outlines three decadal periods (2024-2030, 2030-2040, 2040-2050) with specific milestones for each [165] - The first decadal period focuses on emerging GHGR technologies, community engagement, and establishing permitting structures [194] - The second decadal period emphasizes adoption of GHGR, with a focus on workforce development, infrastructure build-out, and scaled financing [205] - The final decadal period aims for expansion of GHGR, achieving a gigaton-scale industry with sustained growth rates [165] Market Infrastructure and Demand - Market infrastructure development includes harmonized accreditation, certification, and risk management standards [221] - Demand for CDR credits must rise to $40-$60 billion per year to achieve scaling goals, with a shift toward publicly mandated procurement by 2030 [204] Workforce Development - Workforce development programs should focus on approach-specific training, creating safe, well-paying jobs for local community members [222] Political Support and Public Engagement - Political support is essential for establishing stable, scaled, long-term demand for CDR, with governments increasing incentive programs and building new procurement frameworks [204] - Public engagement efforts should include evidence-based journalism and community advocacy to build awareness and support for GHGR [223]