食品饮料行业2025年度策略：把握景气回升下的结构性机会，精选优质个股

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's valuation stabilized after hitting a historical low in September 2024, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, compared to 26.2X a year earlier [1][30] - The sector remains underweight in fund holdings, with a decrease in allocation to 7.9% in Q3 2024, indicating a low allocation status compared to other industries [1][17] - The report highlights structural investment opportunities in various sub-industries, particularly as the restaurant sector recovers [1] Summary by Sections Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation decreased year-on-year due to economic changes and weak consumer confidence, with a PE-TTM of 21.5X as of December 1, 2024, down from 26.2X the previous year [1][30] - The sector's valuation has rebounded from a low of 17.0X in September 2024, which was at the 0.3% historical percentile over the past five years [1][30] Fund Holdings - The food and beverage sector is currently in a low allocation state, with a 4.0 percentage point decrease from Q1 2024 and a 0.5 percentage point decrease from Q2 2024 [1][17] Alcohol Industry - The report anticipates a more pragmatic operational goal for liquor companies in 2025, with a focus on destocking and improving profitability as channel pressures ease [1] - The white liquor sector showed revenue and net profit growth rates of 9.2% and 10.7% respectively for the first three quarters of 2024, but experienced a significant slowdown in Q3 2024 [1][38] Consumer Goods - The report identifies an upward trend in the consumer goods sector, benefiting from the recovery of the restaurant industry, with specific recommendations for various sub-industries [1] - The beer industry is expected to see profit recovery due to structural upgrades and cost advantages continuing into 2025 [1][19] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Qingdao Beer, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in consumer demand [1]