农林牧渔行业：养殖链景气尚存，宠物经济势同风起

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the livestock and poultry farming industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within this sector [21][67]. Core Insights - The livestock farming sector is experiencing a cautious expansion in breeding capacity, with a focus on cost control as a key factor for valuation in a relatively stable development phase [3][18]. - The pet economy is on the rise, with the domestic pet consumption market expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by strong consumer preferences for domestic brands [5][121]. Summary by Sections 1. Livestock Farming - In 2024, pig prices showed significant improvement, with an average price of approximately 16.9 yuan/kg, recovering from the previous year's lows [8][24]. - The breeding capacity for sows is cautiously expanding, with a 7.9% increase in the number of breeding sows compared to the beginning of the year [13][24]. - Companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Shennong Group are recommended for investment due to their cost advantages [3][4]. 2. Poultry Farming - The chicken farming sector is entering a new delicate balance, with chick prices remaining strong while broiler prices are under pressure [34][40]. - The average price of chicks in 2024 is expected to be around 3.28 yuan/chick, a 16% increase from 2023, while broiler prices have fluctuated between 3.6 and 3.8 yuan/kg [34][40]. - Companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock are highlighted for their competitive advantages in this sector [64]. 3. Post-Cycle: Feed and Animal Health - The feed industry faced challenges in 2024, with a 4.3% decline in total industrial feed production, but is expected to recover in 2025 as pig production increases [78][82]. - The animal health sector is benefiting from improved pig prices, with companies like Keqian Bio and Zhongmu Co. expected to perform well [84][90]. 4. Seed Industry - The seed industry is entering a rapid commercialization phase for genetically modified seeds, with leading companies like Longping High-Tech expected to benefit significantly [5][125]. - The market for genetically modified corn seeds is projected to reach approximately 375 billion yuan within five years of commercialization [100][125]. 5. Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food market is projected to continue its robust growth, with a focus on premium products and domestic brand preferences [5][121]. - Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Petty Co. are recommended for their strong market positions in the pet food sector [5][121].