策略周报：当前红利资产性价比如何？

Core Insights - Since September 24, dividend assets have underperformed primarily due to increased market risk appetite and changes in the structure of incremental capital [3][10][18] - Current valuation and trading heat of the dividend sector are overall low, with most industries within the dividend sector showing lower historical trading heat [4][22] - Short-term economic recovery is slow, suggesting a focus on dividend assets during market fluctuations, while mid-term trends will center on technology manufacturing and high-end manufacturing [11][29] Valuation and Trading Heat - The valuation of the dividend sector is at historical lows, with the CSI Dividend Index's relative PE at the 27th percentile over the past 10 years [4][22] - Trading indicators for representative dividend indices are at historical median levels, with most industries in the dividend sector showing lower trading heat [4][22] - Specific industries like coal and public utilities maintain relatively high trading heat, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals have seen a decline [4][22] Market Dynamics - The market has shifted towards higher risk appetite since September 24, with active funds driving this change, as evidenced by retail and speculative trading volumes significantly exceeding institutional trading [10][38] - The overall trading volume in A-shares has decreased from a peak of 2,923 million shares on October 8 to 1,286 million shares by December 19, indicating a cooling market sentiment [11] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policy has shifted towards a more proactive stance, with expectations of GDP growth around 5% in 2025 and a corresponding increase in A-share net profit growth [27] - Recent improvements in basic economic indicators, such as a 3.2% year-on-year increase in property sales in November, suggest a gradual recovery [27] Sector Focus - Mid-term focus should be on technology manufacturing and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from policy support and cyclical recovery [29][31] - The technology sector is poised for growth, particularly in areas like AI and digital infrastructure, supported by favorable policies [31]