NIO(09866) 海通国际·2024-12-22 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding the market performance of the Firefly model in 2025, indicating a hold rating for the stock [1]. Core Insights - The Firefly, positioned as a compact EV priced at Rmb148,800, targets younger consumers but faces intense competition from established brands like BYD, Geely, and Aion, as well as an upcoming Tesla model in a similar price range [1][63]. - NIO's sub-brand ONVO is struggling with production constraints, which may affect the Firefly's delivery ramp-up when it launches in April 2025 [1][63]. - The design of the Firefly has received mixed reviews, with some consumers appreciating its unique look while others find it too extravagant [1][63]. - The pre-sale price of the Firefly does not offer a significant value advantage compared to traditional ICE vehicles or competing EVs, necessitating more flexible production and pricing strategies to succeed in the competitive market [1][63]. Summary by Sections Market Competition - The compact EV market is becoming increasingly competitive, with established players already dominating the segment and new entrants expected to intensify the competition [1][63]. Production and Delivery Challenges - ONVO's production challenges and the uncertain delivery timeline for the Firefly could hinder its market entry and performance [1][63]. Consumer Perception - The Firefly's design has polarized consumer opinions, which could impact its acceptance in the market [1][63]. Pricing Strategy - The pricing of the Firefly is not significantly lower than that of traditional vehicles, which may limit its appeal unless accompanied by strong marketing and brand positioning [1][63].