石油化工行业周报：美国气价短期走高，2025年预期上涨空间有限

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the oil and petrochemical sector is expected to outperform the overall market [51]. Core Insights - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 840,000 barrels per day in 2024, reaching 103.9 million barrels per day in 2025 [5]. - The global economic growth rate is forecasted at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 [6]. - OPEC's crude oil production is expected to decrease by 180,000 barrels per day in 2024, with a slight increase in 2025 [9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the refining sector due to cost reductions and favorable tax reforms for leading companies [64]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Demand - Global oil demand is expected to increase from 840,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 1.039 million barrels per day in 2025 [5][81]. Economic Growth - The global economic growth rate is anticipated to remain stable at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 [6]. OPEC Production - OPEC's crude oil production is projected to decrease to 26.72 million barrels per day in 2024, with a slight recovery in 2025 [9]. Refining Sector Insights - The refining sector is expected to see cost improvements and benefits from consumption tax reforms, favoring major companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [64]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the refining sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as polyester companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to expected demand improvements [64].