化妆品医美行业周报：年终促销带高板块关注，10-11月美妆社零增速4%

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [54]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.8% from December 13 to December 20, 2024, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the Shenwan A Index [7][24]. - The retail sales of cosmetics in November 2024 saw a significant decline of 26.4% year-on-year, but the overall growth for the October-November period was approximately 4.3%, highlighting the strong demand during promotional events [25][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and affordable products in driving growth in the cosmetics sector, with a focus on brand matrix and product innovation [12][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care sector has underperformed the market, with specific indices showing declines: the Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index by 1.1% [7][24]. - The top-performing stocks during this period included Keli Co., Ltd. (up 38.6%), Marubi (up 11.6%), and Nobon Co., Ltd. (up 11.2%) [8]. Market Trends - The year-end promotional activities are expected to boost attention in the sector, with a 4% growth in retail sales for cosmetics during the October-November period [12][22]. - The report forecasts that the cosmetics market will benefit from a recovery in consumer spending and the continued rise of domestic brands, with a focus on affordability and product segmentation [13][14]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the cosmetics sector include Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi, which are well-positioned to benefit from the live e-commerce boom and strong brand matrices [15][12]. - In the medical beauty segment, companies with strong product pipelines and high profitability, such as Aimeike, are highlighted as key investment opportunities [15][14]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the medical beauty market is transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with domestic companies expected to become major competitors in the light medical beauty sector [14]. - The e-commerce segment is also recommended for attention, with companies like Nanji E-commerce and Ruoyu Chen expected to thrive under new consumption models [15][27].