外汇双周报：鹰派降息债务纠纷

Group 1: Currency Trends - The offshore and onshore USD/CNY exchange rate gap has returned to positive, reinforcing depreciation expectations for the RMB[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate closed at 7.2985, reflecting a 0.56% increase from the previous close of 7.2610[5] - The RMB has shown a significant smaller fluctuation compared to the USD, indicating potential intervention by the central bank to prevent rapid depreciation[27] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but future rate cuts are expected to be cautious, with only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points anticipated in 2025[3] - The People's Bank of China has not lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), maintaining a stable monetary policy stance[3] - The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 basis points and may continue to do so in January[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The USD index has strengthened, closing at 107.84, a 1.77% increase from the previous close of 105.97[19] - The market is recognizing Trump's fiscal tightening logic, which may lead to a risk of a temporary pullback in the USD[27] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, contributing to a more stable market environment[38]