社会服务行业2025年度策略：需求恢复明确，坚定布局信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social service industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in 2025 [41]. Core Insights - The demand recovery in the social service sector is evident, with various consumption promotion policies aiding in the orderly recovery of market demand. The overall retail consumption data shows a stable recovery, although the sector faces challenges from macroeconomic conditions and consumer income growth expectations [41]. - The tourism sector is experiencing a high level of market activity, with cross-border travel contributing to growth. The report suggests focusing on companies that are expanding supply and improving transportation, as well as those with potential for increased dividends [41]. - The hotel industry continues to expand, with major hotel groups maintaining their store expansion strategies. However, achieving year-on-year growth is challenging due to high base effects from the previous year [31][41]. Summary by Sections Tourism - The tourism market is showing strong recovery, with cross-border travel expected to contribute significantly to growth. The report highlights the importance of supply-side expansion and improved transportation for tourism companies [41]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Xiyu Tourism for potential opportunities [41]. Hotels - Major hotel groups are continuing their expansion strategies, with a total of 13,186, 6,748, and 10,707 stores for Jinjiang, Shouqi, and Huazhu respectively as of Q3 2024. The report notes that the investment in hotels remains attractive compared to traditional real estate [31][41]. - The ongoing trend towards mid-to-high-end hotel offerings is emphasized, with significant proportions of hotel rooms in these categories [34][41]. Restaurants - The restaurant sector is stabilizing, with a focus on enhancing competitive capabilities and strategies for market penetration. The report notes that some restaurant companies are adjusting prices and expanding into lower-tier markets to adapt to changing consumer behavior [12][41]. - Companies like Tongqinglou are highlighted for their performance amidst high base effects from the previous year [18][41].