11月金融数据点评：居民中长期贷款有所恢复

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, the total social financing increased by 2.33 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans from financial institutions amounting to 580 billion yuan, both figures falling short of market expectations[2][6] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 7.8%[2][6] - The new credit volume in November was only 580 billion yuan, a decrease of 510 billion yuan year-on-year[19] Group 2: Contributions to Financing - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was 129.2 billion yuan, with significant contributions from corporate bonds and government bonds[3][23] - Corporate bond financing in November saw an increase of 238.1 billion yuan, up 99.3 billion yuan year-on-year[3][23] - Government bonds added 1.3089 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 157.7 billion yuan, largely due to the issuance of approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in replacement bonds[3][25] Group 3: Deposit Trends - In November, M2 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1%, while M1 increased by 2.4 percentage points to -3.7%[4][11] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant drop, with only 180 billion yuan added, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan[4][28] - Resident deposits increased by 790 billion yuan, while corporate deposits rose by 740 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit dynamics[28] Group 4: Future Outlook - The government bonds are expected to continue supporting social financing due to ongoing debt replacement needs and increased local government bond issuance[25][32] - The recent decline in interest rates may have already priced in expectations for rate cuts in 2025, with potential market volatility anticipated as year-end approaches[20][38] - The impact of recent real estate policies on household loan recovery remains to be observed, as the current leverage space for households is limited[32]