建筑材料行业周报：零售端改善，静待需求进一步恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the building materials industry [8] Core Views - Cement: Demand decline significantly impacts prices, with national cement prices continuing to decrease. The current demand is heavily influenced by weather conditions, leading to a downward trend in most regions. The supply side shows stable staggered production, with a kiln shutdown rate exceeding 85% in northern regions. Short-term demand is expected to decline further due to falling temperatures and the upcoming Spring Festival, which will have a more pronounced effect on prices. However, medium to long-term prospects may improve with policy support for infrastructure investment, which could boost cement demand [1][95] - Consumer Building Materials: Retail performance has shown significant improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline in retail sales of building and decoration materials from January to November 2024, a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous period. November saw a 2.9% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by positive changes in the real estate market and a surge in demand due to year-end project completions. Future policies are expected to further stimulate demand [2][75] - Glass Fiber: The terminal demand remains weak, with stable pricing for raw yarns but limited support from downstream orders. The market shows a cautious outlook, with expectations for price stability in the short term. However, medium to long-term demand is anticipated to grow due to emerging markets such as wind energy and automotive lightweighting [2][62] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement production from January to November 2024 reached 1.671 billion tons, a 10.1% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level since 2010. November's production was 169 million tons, down 10.7% year-on-year [10] - The average national cement price as of December 20 was 357.11 CNY per ton, a 0.62% decrease week-on-week, but an 8.65% increase year-on-year [49] - The report recommends companies like Huaxin Cement and Shangfeng Cement, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure investment recovery and potential price increases [4][63] Consumer Building Materials - The retail sector for building materials is recovering, with significant growth expected in the fourth quarter due to year-end project completions and policy support for old housing renovations [2][75] - Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in demand [4][63] Glass Fiber - The report indicates that while raw yarn prices remain stable, the overall demand is weak, particularly in the electronic fiber segment. However, the long-term outlook is positive due to growth in high-demand sectors [2][62] - China Jushi is highlighted as a recommended company due to its expanding capacity and increasing share of high-end products [4][63]