机械设备行业2025年度策略：内需拨云见日，出海厚积薄发

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating for 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and overseas demand trends [30]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to benefit from a combination of domestic policy support, infrastructure investment, and a recovery in global demand, particularly in engineering machinery, wind power equipment, general equipment, and export chains [30]. - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in China increasing by 9.80% domestically and 15.10% overall in October 2024 [79]. - Wind power equipment is projected to grow due to ongoing domestic offshore wind projects and increasing overseas orders for components [30]. - General equipment is anticipated to see a recovery driven by policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [30]. - The export chain is expected to benefit from a recovery in the European and American markets, alongside strong demand from Asia, Africa, and Latin America [30]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic and overseas demand is showing a synchronized recovery, with excavator sales in the first ten months of 2024 reaching 164,172 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.47% [79]. - The domestic market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing real estate and promoting equipment upgrades [30]. Wind Power Equipment - The domestic wind power sector is experiencing a significant increase in installed capacity, with 45.80 GW added in the first ten months of 2024, a 22.76% year-on-year increase [30]. - The industry is expected to see a small "rush to install" in the next two years as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its end, with a total planned capacity of over 320 GW [4]. General Equipment - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment growth has stabilized, with a manufacturing PMI returning above the growth line, indicating a weak recovery [30]. - Policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments are expected to support domestic demand recovery [30]. Export Chain - The overall demand in the global market is weak due to high interest rates, but demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America remains strong [20]. - The recovery in the European and American markets is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2024, driven by interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment [30]. Mergers and Acquisitions - A series of policies emphasizing mergers and acquisitions are expected to create opportunities in the mechanical equipment sector, with a focus on high-quality development [27].