HAIER SMART HOME(600690) 群益证券·2024-12-24 06:56Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haier Smart Home (600690.SH/6690.HK) with a target price of 35/34 RMB/HKD [10] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from favorable national subsidies, particularly in 2025, which will likely drive domestic appliance sales growth [10] - The company's global expansion strategy, including acquisitions and multi-brand, cross-regional operations, has positioned it as a leader in various international markets [10] - The continuation and potential expansion of appliance replacement subsidies, coupled with the company's proactive overseas market development, are expected to support steady growth in earnings [10] Summary by Section Financial Performance - Revenue: Expected to grow from 243,514 million RMB in 2024 to 319,982 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 8.4% [4] - Operating Costs: Projected to increase from 167,223 million RMB in 2024 to 217,078 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 7.8% [4] - Net Profit: Anticipated to rise from 19,459 million RMB in 2024 to 25,330 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.3% [4][11] - EPS: Expected to grow from 2.07 RMB in 2024 to 2.70 RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.3% [11] - P/E Ratio: The A-share P/E ratio is forecasted to decline from 13.74 in 2024 to 10.56 in 2026, while the H-share P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 12.09 to 9.29 over the same period [11] Product Mix and Market Position - Product Mix: The company's product portfolio includes refrigerators (31.3%), washing machines (20.3%), and air conditioners (16.4%) [10] - Market Share: In 2023, the company ranked first in Asia with a 26% market share, second in the Americas with 15.8%, and first in Australia and New Zealand with 14.6% [10] - Revenue Growth: Overseas market revenue grew by 3.7% in 2023, with significant growth in South Asia (+9.9%), Southeast Asia (+12.4%), and Central Africa (+26.8%) [10] Policy and Market Dynamics - Domestic Market: The domestic appliance market has seen strong growth, with air conditioner sales increasing by 24% and 29% in October and November 2024, respectively, driven by replacement subsidies and e-commerce promotions [10] - Policy Support: The national government has indicated that the 2025 special long-term国债 funds will be significantly increased, potentially expanding the scope of supported products and markets [10] - Local Initiatives: The Hubei Provincial Department of Commerce has issued guidelines for the 2025 consumer replacement program, signaling continued policy support at the local level [10] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating Cash Flow: Expected to increase from 25,297 million RMB in 2024 to 30,396 million RMB in 2026 [13] - Investing Cash Flow: Projected to remain negative, with outflows decreasing from -9,574 million RMB in 2024 to -11,078 million RMB in 2026 [13] - Financing Cash Flow: Expected to remain negative, with outflows increasing from -9,730 million RMB in 2024 to -12,665 million RMB in 2026 [13] - Cash Equivalents: Forecasted to grow from 60,480 million RMB in 2024 to 73,181 million RMB in 2026 [15] Balance Sheet - Total Assets: Expected to increase from 270,027 million RMB in 2024 to 306,858 million RMB in 2026 [15] - Total Liabilities: Projected to rise from 155,492 million RMB in 2024 to 174,113 million RMB in 2026 [15] - Shareholder Equity: Anticipated to grow from 111,946 million RMB in 2024 to 129,202 million RMB in 2026 [15]