海外宏观周报（2024年第43期）：暗潮涌动的超级央行周

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve implemented a "hawkish rate cut" of 25 basis points, but market reactions were volatile, with the dollar index reaching a high of 108.5[9] - The dot plot indicates four officials projecting the 2024 year-end rate between 4.5% and 4.75%, suggesting a more hawkish stance for next year[10] - The Fed raised its economic and inflation forecasts, with the PCE inflation expectation set at 2.5% for 2025, indicating that current rates may not be restrictive enough[10] - November's core PCE inflation was flat at 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, while overall PCE rose to 2.4%[11] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - Japan's central bank maintained its interest rates, but rising inflation expectations have increased the likelihood of a rate hike in January[14] - The Bank of England kept its rate at 4.75%, but the voting split was 6:3, indicating growing support for a rate cut despite persistent inflation[14] - Eurozone inflation was revised down, while UK inflation showed signs of resurgence, reflecting mixed economic signals across regions[34] Group 3: Key Economic Data - U.S. Q3 GDP was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 3.1%, with personal consumption contributing 2.5 percentage points[23] - November retail sales increased by 0.7%, surpassing expectations of 0.5%, while core retail sales rose by 0.2%[23] - Industrial production fell by 0.1% in November, but manufacturing output showed a slight recovery with a 0.2% increase[31]