2024年出版传媒行业研究及2025年信用风险展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit rating for the publishing and media industry, with no adjustments in credit levels for bond-issuing companies in 2024 [2][5]. Core Insights - The publishing and media industry is expected to maintain stable credit quality in 2025, supported by strong regional market competition and effective financing channels [5][12]. - The industry is experiencing a structural recovery in the book retail market, despite ongoing sales declines in traditional channels, with content e-commerce showing positive growth [20][28]. - The government is emphasizing the development of the cultural industry, which is expected to enhance market vitality and expand the cultural market scale [12][40]. Summary by Sections Credit Quality - The majority of bond-issuing entities are state-controlled with credit ratings primarily at AA+ and above, indicating strong credit quality [5][13]. - As of November 2024, the total outstanding bonds in the publishing and media industry amount to 259.10 billion, with a significant portion being medium-term notes [33][38]. Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the cultural sector showed a revenue increase of 5.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in content creation and cultural service sectors [15][26]. - The book retail market saw a slight decline of 0.68% in sales volume compared to the previous year, but the decline rate has narrowed [17][20]. Debt Pressure - The debt repayment pressure for publishing companies is concentrated in the next two years, but the overall scale is manageable, primarily involving entities with AA+ credit ratings [32][42]. - The new bond issuance in 2024 totaled 115.50 billion, with medium-term notes making up the majority of the issuance [32][38].