周度策略观察（2024年第50周）：债市存在降温可能，或对A股阶段表现相对有利

Global Market Review - The global stock market has entered a period of low trading activity, but there may still be localized volatility due to geopolitical tensions and upcoming macroeconomic data releases [22][63]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision, which included a 25 basis point cut, has led to significant market fluctuations, with the VIX index rising over 70% in a single day [68]. A-Share Market Review - The A-share market experienced a contraction and adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a weekly decline of 0.70%. Large-cap stocks outperformed smaller ones during this period [17][11]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's recent guidelines on state-owned enterprise market value management have positively influenced market sentiment, suggesting potential for a rebound [4][58]. Strategy Insights - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience a phase of adjustment followed by a rebound, driven by the stabilization role of large-cap sectors such as state-owned banks, coal, and infrastructure [4][12]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue leading the market, while the military industry is gaining strategic importance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [4][12]. - Expectations of monetary easing, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated to stabilize domestic commodity markets, particularly in the black metals and chemical sectors [4][12]. Industry Performance - Most sectors in the A-share market saw declines, with telecommunications and electronics showing relative strength. The banking sector achieved positive returns, while consumer and real estate sectors faced pressure [27][30]. - The semiconductor, communication equipment, and non-metallic materials sectors led the gains, while consumer-related sub-industries were among the worst performers [27][30]. Market Activity - Approximately 1,200 stocks recorded positive returns, but the median weekly decline for individual stocks was -2.9%, indicating that large-cap stocks dominated performance [30]. - The average daily trading volume in the market was around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous week, while margin financing balances continued to rise [30][52].