美联储议息会议点评（2024年12月）：鹰派降息

Economic Outlook - The risk of re-inflation is expected to be a core theme in foreign asset trading, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's rate cuts below expectations[2] - The U.S. economy's growth forecast for 2024 has been significantly raised by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, with the 2025 forecast slightly adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%[12] - The U.S. PCE inflation forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%[25] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25-4.5%, while maintaining a balance sheet reduction pace of $60 billion per month[11] - The dot plot indicates a significant reduction in the expected rate cuts for 2024, from 100 basis points to 50 basis points[14] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that the current cycle may end by mid-2025[15] Market Implications - U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 2-year yield up 11 basis points to 4.35% and the 10-year yield up 12 basis points to 4.51%[5] - The strong dollar narrative is expected to persist, with the dollar index projected to range between 105-115, while non-U.S. currencies remain weak[19] - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.95% and the Nasdaq down 3.56%[17]