【蓝】解数咨询第263期：毛戈平敲钟！复盘2024彩妆赛道这一年！（毛戈平、YSL、彩棠）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the cosmetics industry Core Insights - The cosmetics industry is experiencing a significant shift, with Douyin surpassing Taobao in market scale, achieving a revenue of 535.6 billion compared to Taobao's 286.4 billion for the period from December 2023 to November 2024 [6][21] - Taobao's cosmetics sector is showing signs of decline, with sales dropping from approximately 41 billion in November 2023 to 22.46 billion in the same month of 2024, indicating a decrease of about 45% [7][21] - The number of brands on Taobao has shrunk by 25%, and the number of products has halved, reflecting a consolidation in the market [10][21] - In contrast, Douyin's cosmetics sector continues to grow, with monthly sales increasing from 2.5-5 billion in January 2021 to a range of 50-75 billion by October 2024, although growth rates are beginning to stabilize [15][21] Summary by Sections 1. Cosmetics Industry Analysis - Taobao's cosmetics sales have shown a downward trend, particularly outside major promotional events like 618 and Double 11, where sales fell from around 20 billion to 17 billion [7] - Douyin's market presence is expanding, with a notable increase in brand turnover and a more dynamic competitive landscape compared to Taobao [21] 2. Star Brand Breakdown - The brand Maogeping has seen substantial growth on both platforms, with its sales on Douyin being three times that on Taobao [26] - Maogeping's product range has expanded from 46 to over 600 items since 2021, with an average selling price rising from 147 yuan to 236 yuan [57] - The brand's sales strategy has shifted from relying heavily on influencers to increasing self-operated sales, now accounting for approximately 53% of total sales on Douyin [62]