2024年东南亚的可持续航空燃料基于生物的解决办法的区域视角报告（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) industry in Southeast Asia Core Insights - The SAF industry in Southeast Asia is still in its infancy, with a current global production capacity of less than 1% of global aviation fuel usage, highlighting the need for significant investment and policy support to scale production [45] - The uneven distribution of feedstock resources among Southeast Asian countries presents challenges for self-reliance in SAF supply, with resource-rich countries like Indonesia positioned as key exporters [25][79] - The development of SAF is influenced by various factors, including feedstock availability, technological readiness, and government policies, which vary significantly across the region [76][101] Summary by Sections Feedstock and Land Resources - The potential for energy crops on under-utilised low-carbon land in Southeast Asia is significant, with estimates suggesting that allocating 9% of such land could yield up to 18.4 million tonnes per year of SAF, nearly meeting the region's projected demand [17] - Countries like Indonesia and Myanmar show the most potential for SAF production from energy crops, while others may struggle to meet demand using only domestic residues and wastes [4][17] Production Pathways - The report focuses on three main SAF production pathways: HEFA, FT, and ATJ, with HEFA expected to be the most widely used due to its established technology and lower capital expenditure [27][41] - The minimum jet fuel selling price (MJSP) for SAF varies across Southeast Asia, with HEFA ranging from USD 1.6 to 2.1 per litre, significantly higher than the fossil-based Jet A-1 price of USD 0.6 per litre [69][39] Policy Development - Several Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, have initiated SAF roadmaps or blueprints, with Singapore being the first to establish a mandate for SAF use [76][44] - The report emphasizes the need for harmonization of policies across different ministries in countries like Malaysia to accelerate SAF development and align targets [85] International Trade and Investment - International investments play a crucial role in the SAF sector, with partnerships like that of Prime Infrastructure Capital and WasteFuel Global in the Philippines highlighting the importance of foreign capital for scaling production [95] - The report suggests that a coordinated regional framework for SAF production and trade could help balance competition and foster sustainability across Southeast Asia [100][96]