HTI东南亚消费行业11月跟踪报告：消费景气与信心增强，各国CPI表现分化

Economic Growth and GDP Performance - Indonesia's GDP growth in 3Q24 was 4.95%, below the 5% target and the lowest since 3Q23 [116] - Singapore's GDP grew by 4.1% in 3Q24, driven by a recovery in the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics and semiconductors [126] - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.4% in 3Q24, the highest in two years, supported by strong consumption, manufacturing, and exports [158] - Thailand's GDP grew by 2.96% in 3Q24, with wholesale and retail trade growing by 3.50% and accommodation and food services by 8.40% [151] Inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Indonesia's CPI in November 2024 increased by 1.55% YoY, driven by rising food, beverage, and tobacco prices [108] - Singapore's CPI in November 2024 rose by 1.60% YoY, below market expectations, with food inflation at 2.4% and services inflation at 2.2% [15] - Thailand's CPI in November 2024 increased by 0.95% YoY, below the expected 1.12%, with core inflation rising to 0.80% [123] - Vietnam's CPI in November 2024 grew by 2.77% YoY, with food and beverage prices contributing to the increase [134] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Indonesia's consumer confidence index reached 125.90 in November 2024, the highest since April, indicating strong consumer optimism [120] - Thailand's consumer confidence index rose to 52.9 in October 2024, showing a clear upward trend [153] - Singapore's food and beverage sales in October 2024 reached SGD 997 million, a 3.9% YoY increase, driven by growth in in-flight and event catering [17] Sector Performance and Valuation - Vietnam's essential consumer sector valuation improved, reaching the 63rd percentile of its historical range as of November 2024 [60] - Malaysia's daily and discretionary consumer sectors had PE historical percentiles of 97% and 96%, respectively, indicating high valuations [31] - Indonesia's essential consumer sector PE historical percentile stood at 26%, while Thailand's was at 19% for essential and 36% for discretionary sectors [60] Market Performance and Stock Movements - In November 2024, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumer sectors outperformed the broader market, with returns of -3.4% and +3.5%, respectively [100] - Malaysia's daily and discretionary consumer sectors outperformed the market, with returns of +1.5% and -3.9%, respectively [100] - Singapore's daily consumer sector outperformed the market with a +2.4% return, while the discretionary sector underperformed with a -3.7% return [100] Key Companies and Stock Performance - Top performers in Southeast Asia included Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (+11.2%), DFI Retail Group (+9.2%), and Golden Agri-Resources (+5.5%) [105] - Underperformers included Unilever Indonesia (-11.1%), Home Product Center (-10.7%), and Minor International (-8.5%) [105]