总量专题报告：低生育率的危害和破局

Fertility Rate and Economic Impact - China's total fertility rate has dropped to 1.0, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, and is among the lowest globally, ranking 9th from the bottom out of 253 countries/regions[130] - Long-term low fertility rates may lead to reduced labor supply, decreased productivity, and weakened social innovation, potentially slowing economic growth[1] - Low fertility rates could suppress household consumption and increase savings, negatively impacting economic growth[89] International Comparisons and Policy Responses - China's fertility rate decline from 1950 to 2023 was 4.8, second only to South Korea among major economies, and significantly higher than the global average decline of 2.6[130] - Nordic countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland have implemented strong family support policies, with family subsidies accounting for 3.6%, 3.2%, and 3.0% of GDP, respectively, significantly higher than the OECD average of 1.6%[103] - East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have been slower to transition from population control to pro-natalist policies, with policy shifts taking over 20 years in some cases[15] Policy Recommendations for China - Increasing cash subsidies to 1.2% of GDP could help stabilize and boost fertility rates, with proposed monthly subsidies ranging from 686 to 2,688 yuan depending on the child's age[44] - Enhancing women's employment security and social childcare support is crucial, as China's female labor participation rate is 70.9%, higher than the global average of 53.5% and high-income countries' average of 68.8%[21] - Reducing gender inequality in the workplace and increasing male participation in childcare could help balance family and work life, with China's gender inequality index at 0.19, higher than Europe, Japan, and South Korea[114] Demographic Trends and Risks - China's working-age population (15-64 years) has been declining, with Italy, Japan, and South Korea experiencing significant drops in labor supply after their fertility rates fell below the warning line[87] - The second baby boom generation (1962-1971) is gradually exiting the childbearing age, putting further pressure on the fertility rate[130] - Low fertility rates may lead to a decline in the youth dependency ratio, which could either increase or decrease household savings depending on the country's specific economic conditions[134]