中国银河：每日晨报-20241226

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dual approach of "defense and offense" to stabilize the economy in 2025, highlighting the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies and comprehensive reforms to mitigate external uncertainties and enhance domestic growth [23][20][21]. Macro Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment for 2025 is characterized by improved liquidity due to "moderately loose" monetary and "more proactive" fiscal policies, which are expected to lower risk-free yields and address demand gaps in certain sectors [20][26]. - GDP growth is projected at 5.0% under neutral conditions, with retail sales expected to grow by 5.4% and fixed asset investment by 4.4% [14][20]. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry continues to face challenges, with a reported revenue of 1,831.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year decline [31]. - The net profit for the steel sector in Q3 2024 was -6.938 billion yuan, marking a significant drop of 152.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing profitability issues [31][50]. - The report suggests that macro policies are likely to enhance the concentration of the steel industry and improve the long-standing supply-demand imbalance, with opportunities for leading players in the ordinary steel segment and high-end special steel [32]. Real Estate Sector Insights - The national housing and urban-rural construction meeting emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and expand urban village renovations, with a target of adding 1 million new units [54][52]. - The report identifies key players in the real estate sector, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved operational capabilities and market share [54][21]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of optimizing housing supply and implementing effective sales systems to meet the housing needs of urban residents [53][54].