2025年农林牧渔行业年度策略：围绕养殖产业链，展望效率与成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [14][370]. Core Insights - The agricultural market is under pressure in 2024, with the SW agriculture index down 5.34% year-to-date, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which is up 14.63% [11][601]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the breeding industry chain and suggests that investment opportunities in 2025 should focus on this area, particularly in light of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment efficiency [11][601]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the meat chicken sector, particularly for yellow feathered chickens, due to low parent stock levels and expected consumer demand recovery [605][606]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Breeding - The report predicts a slight increase in the swine output rate for 2025, with overall prices expected to decline year-on-year [12][373]. - The focus is on refined management contributing to profit elasticity, with recommendations for leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs [12][373]. 2. Meat Chicken Breeding - Yellow feathered chicken parent stock remains at historically low levels, suggesting potential price increases if consumer demand recovers [605][606]. - The report indicates that the white feathered chicken sector may face a contraction in upstream parent stock updates due to overseas import restrictions and domestic breeding plan reductions [605][606]. 3. Pet Food - The pet food market is expected to continue expanding, with domestic brands gaining market share and benefiting from the growth of online sales channels [207][606]. - The report notes that the export market for pet food is recovering, with a positive outlook for 2025 [240][606]. 4. Animal Health - The animal health sector is transitioning towards a market-oriented model, with a focus on multi-valent vaccines and mRNA vaccine development as long-term strategies [285][597]. - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic vaccine replacement in the pet sector, with several products already approved for market [289][597]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong market positions and growth potential, including Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, and leading pet food companies like Guobao Pet and Petty [370][606]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of domestic vaccine producers as they gain market share [472][606].