房地产行业：房企风险化解要这样做

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The report focuses on the risk resolution of real estate developers, emphasizing the importance of policy support, market-oriented and legal principles, and the responsibility of local governments and developers [2][3][4][5] - The core approach is to prioritize the delivery of pre-sold homes (保交楼) and stabilize people's livelihoods, with a focus on rescuing projects rather than companies [3][4][6] - The report highlights the need for a systematic approach to resolve risks, including evaluating developers' sustainability, classifying risks, and implementing targeted support policies [17][18] Policy Evolution - Since H2 2021, policies have evolved from encouraging mergers and acquisitions of distressed projects to focusing on project financing and improving the overall financing environment [3][4] - Key policies include the establishment of a "white list" mechanism for project financing, the introduction of a 200 billion RMB special loan for housing projects, and the "Financial 16 Measures" to support mergers and acquisitions [3][4][10] - In 2024, the focus shifted to supporting project financing needs and distinguishing between project and corporate risks [3][4] Risk Resolution Path - The report suggests a three-step approach: evaluating developers' sustainability, classifying risks, and implementing targeted support policies [17][18] - For systemically important developers, the focus is on debt restructuring, asset stripping, and state capital injection [17][18] - For insolvent developers, the approach involves bankruptcy reorganization and the independent operation of quality assets [17][18] Market Challenges - The real estate market downturn has reduced developers' sales revenue and cash flow, making debt restructuring and asset disposal more difficult [15] - Strict project-level fund supervision has limited developers' ability to centralize funds, adding to the challenges [15] - Global economic uncertainties, such as interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations, have further complicated overseas debt restructuring [15] Policy Recommendations - The report recommends piloting risk resolution models with typical developers before scaling up [18] - It suggests leveraging existing policies, such as reclaiming idle land and stock commercial housing, to support risk resolution [18] - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts among developers, shareholders, creditors, and governments to reduce debt and improve asset structures [19] International Comparison - The report draws parallels with the US subprime mortgage crisis, highlighting the importance of national-level intervention, asset classification, and diverse measures to stabilize the financial system [8][13]