2025年电力行业投资策略：现货铺开供需定价，并购重组烽火再起

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the utilities sector [8] Core Views - 2024 Recap: The utilities sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.33 percentage points, with hydropower and nuclear power showing strong performance due to improved water conditions and lower interest rates, while green energy (wind and solar) faced pressure from grid absorption and pricing challenges [6] - 2025 Outlook: The full rollout of spot markets will emphasize supply-demand pricing logic, with thermal power expected to benefit from widening peak-valley price differences, while green energy may face discount pressures in spot markets [6] - M&A Opportunities: The report highlights accelerated M&A activities among major power generation groups, with significant unlisted assets potentially being injected into listed platforms [7] Key Summaries by Section 2024 Review - The SW Utilities Index rose by 7.81% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300, which rose by 14.15% [6] - Hydropower and nuclear power outperformed, with gains of 15.21% and 25.73%, respectively, while green energy (wind and solar) saw declines of -10.43% and -0.44% [6] - The utilities sector's valuation PE (TTM) was 16.70x, slightly higher than the market average of 14.96x [87] Spot Market Development - By October 2024, five spot markets (Shanxi, Guangdong, Shandong, Gansu, and inter-provincial) had transitioned to formal operation, with four more (Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Zhejiang, and Fujian) in continuous trial operation [6] - Spot market expansion is expected to increase price volatility, with thermal power benefiting from peak-valley price differences, while green energy faces discount pressures [6] - The report predicts that by 2029, most provinces in China will have fully operational spot markets [151] M&A and Asset Injection - The five major power generation groups have significant unlisted assets, with unlisted capacity ratios ranging from 27.5% to 66.6% [7] - Listed platforms such as Huadian Power International, Datang Power, and Longyuan Power are expected to see significant asset injections, with potential capacity increases of 150%, 77%, and 66%, respectively [7] Investment Strategy - Supply-Demand Pricing Logic: Thermal power companies with high market coal ratios and strong demand in key provinces are expected to see stable profits in 2025, with companies like Shenergy Co. and Zhejiang Energy Power recommended [8] - M&A and Quality Improvement: The report recommends focusing on listed platforms with high growth potential, such as Huadian Power International and Datang Power, as well as companies with strong dividend yields like China Yangtze Power and China National Nuclear Power [12] Performance and Valuation - In Q1-Q3 2024, the power industry achieved a net profit of CNY 142.87 billion, up 12.9% year-on-year, with thermal and hydropower sectors showing strong performance [22] - Hydropower and nuclear power sectors maintained stable profitability, while green energy faced pressure from declining utilization hours and electricity prices [89] Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2024, public funds reduced their holdings in the utilities sector, with thermal and nuclear power sectors seeing significant reductions [89] - China Yangtze Power remained the top holding, with a market value of CNY 43.42 billion, followed by China National Nuclear Power and Sichuan Chuantou Energy [98]